Venezuela: Juan Guaido Makes a Move 30 April 2019

Early Monday morning:

Translation:

The armed forces have made the correct decision, with the support of the people of Venezueal, endorsed by the constituion, with the guarantee of being on the right side of history. Deploying their forces to end the usurpation.

And:

People of Venezuela, it is necessary that we go out together to the street, to support the democratic forces and to recover our freedom. Organized and together mobilize the main military units. People of Caracas, all to la Carlota.



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48103858

Either Juan Guaido has found significant support in the military or the pressure was too much and he's risking it all on a long shot.  No clue how this will turn out.

If this turns out to be a small coup then the main arena will be around the airport itself.  Looks like the airfield is overlooked by neighbourhoods on hillsides to the south with a commerical area to the east.

By calling on supporters to rally at Carlota seems like Guaido is trying for a "people power" revolt with the help of the military elements instead of a full military coup / confrontation.

A lot of the video and photos are taken from the Altamira bridge which is located on the NW end of the airfield.

National guardsmen confronting and arresting others. Comments state that pro-Guaido guardsmen are the ones making the arrest.

Update: 1030 Caracas time - I'm wondering if Guaido's plan is to focus Maduro's attention and resources on the air base, wait and then have pre-planned military defections from around the country?  If not, not sure how long he can support crowds in an exposed area.

1314 Caracas time - My thought was that the "coup" was contained at the air field so this video is interesting with protesters and some troops headed west towards the palace. 

If the below is true then explains a lot:

1600 Caracas time - not looking for for Guaido.

Also, I think Guaido's cards at start were not as good as it initially seemed. I thought he had support within the airbase and his revolt started with a secure base but apparently he announced his "Final Operation" from outside the base and relied on crowds to break in.  Not sure if his forces ever had complete control of that base and probably did not have much support within. 

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 3 February Update

3 February 

This tweet by a deputy of the National Assembly gives the first indication of how the humanitarian aide will be used in this struggle. 

"Thanks to the support of President Iván Duque; Venezuelan private companies in Colombia; and the Government of the USA: we announce that this weekend begins the first of three shipments of humanitarian aid to Venezuela to the collection center of Cúcuta".

Run an DuckDuckGo search "Venezuelan refugees Cucuta Columbia" and you'll find news accounts from 2017 reporting on refugee flows in this border city.

I was wondering if the US was going to conduct a provocative "reverse Cuban blockade" and instead of quarantining Venezuela, send aid shipments directly to Venezuela ports and dare the Maduro government to confiscate it or block it.

Earlier today Juan Guaido posted on his government's short term strategy:

"Attention to the Next Actions"

1. Create a national and international coalition for humanitarian aide, with three distribution centers.
2. We will mobilize to convince the FAN to permit the entry of humanitarian aid.
3. We will ask Europe to protect our activities. 

Minor detail but Guaido referred to the armed forces with the acronym FAN - Fuerzas Armas Nacionales and not by the current FANB - Fuerzas Armadas Bolivarianas Nacionales.

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This update bought to you by the Battle of the Bulge series of blog posts.  Expect new Bulge posts highlighting the action on the morning of 16 December in the 18th VG Division's sector.