Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 6 February Update

Juan Guaidó / National Assembly

Strategy for the past few days is to advertise how many countries recognize Juan Guaidó as president. This may reinforce the message coming from the Maduro camp of underdogs trying to defend national sovereignty against the power wielded by the US.

Not sure who the ex Chavez ministers are mentioned below but may be a sign that current supporters of the Maduro regime may be seeking a way out.

"The President @jguaido, held an important meeting with former Ministers of the Ex President, Hugo Chávez.

In the meeting there were several established approaches, the President was recognized and agreed on the need to solve the problems of all Venezuelans."

I'm mildly skeptical about the word "recognized" and may only mean that his opinions were recognized and all the meeting accomplished (publically) was an agreement to keep talking.

Maduro

The main bridge on the border between Venezuela and Columbia has been blocked. This is by Cucuta, Columbia which was the first area aid was advertised to be sent on the 2 February update.

On 2 February I was thinking the aid would be for Venezuelan refugees in Columbia but we also have to remember that the #2 next action put out by Juan Guaidó on 2 February was to "...mobilize to convince the FAN to permit the entry of humanitarian aid.

A gas tank and shipping containers obstructing passage to Venezeula are seen on the Tienditas International Bridge in an aerial photograph taken over Cucuta, Colombia, on Feb. 6, 2019. Photographer: Ivan Valencia/Bloomberg

Note: I'm trying to write this series from a neutral point of view but I cringe at some of the headlines in the U.S. press stating that Venezuela is blocking the bridge in "an attempt to stop aid". Looking at the picture above it's a fair bet that the aid is in a stop mode. 

Recruitment push for the militia and I've noticed a lot of support from Bolivia.

Bolivariana Militia "Where the people are able, the Homeland gains".

#EnlistforVenezuela

If you are between 18 and 30 years of age, enlist in the FANB, from January 14 to February 24 at the nearest military unit. Enlist!

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios (War of Nerves)

At this stage the actual "war" between Maduro's government of the Bolivarian revolution and  the United States along with the opposition government proclaimed by Guaido is one of building pressure.

The United States is applying pressure in order to convince a critical mass of the Venezuelan public and, more importantly, those that wield power in Venezuela, to abandon Maduro while Maduro is busy gauging the loyalty of those who can ensure his government's survival.  This is a war of nerves with the United States having the initiative and Maduro attempting to build cohesion.

What does all this have to do with a war game blog?  Everything, as there is a wealth of simulation opportunities unfolding.  Obviously, the United States believes there is a certain level of opposition to Maduro's regime within reach that once obtained, will see a friendly government installed. This allows the following game concept:

• Game split between the War of Nerves (propaganda, sanctions, food aid, money, gold and oil and pressure built or diffused by international politics) and intervention / invasion.

• Possibility of multi-player and semi-RPG in the War of Nerves portion of the game. For example, the Bolivariana players can be split by various power players with different motives. The commanding general of the National Guard has a vested interest in regime survival as his personal survival may be on the line but a key general, with family residing overseas may play a game of changing sides if the opposition allows him to retain his wealth.

• If the US players can only get a draw or are losing the War of Nerves game they have the option to escalate and intervene. Different scenarios allow for an "International Peacekeeping" deployment to outright invasion and regime change. 

• Option for three players or three teams with the Bolivarian regime, the US and the Venezuelan opposition. Both the US and opposition are allied but have different victory conditions. 

• Game can also have an option for a post invasion simulation.  The Maduro player may win the War of Nerves causing the US player to invade and obtain an overwhelming victory. Post invasion, who wins the peace?  

I am following these Twitter accounts:

Republica Bolivariana 

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro (Spanish)

https://twitter.com/maduro_en  (English)

Presidential Press Office

https://twitter.com/PresidencialVen

Venezuelan National Guard
https://twitter.com/GNBoficial

Ministry of Defense
https://twitter.com/PrensaFANB

Strategic Operational Command
https://twitter.com/ceofanb

Channel 8
https://twitter.com/VTVcanal8

Republica Bolivariana US Backed 

https://twitter.com/jguaido?lang=en

National Assembly
https://twitter.com/AsambleaVE?lang=en

United States

Note: I'm not adding the Trump twitter account as his account will mostly deal with domestic politics and in this War of Nerves the following members of his administration will take the lead on the Venezuelan situation.

Vice President
https://twitter.com/VP?lang=en

Secretary of State
https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?lang=en

Asst. to the President for National Security Affairs
https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton?lang=en