Showing posts with label Propaganda war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Propaganda war. Show all posts

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Venezuela: Brian Train's Caudillo Part II

In Part I I described the game's general course of play and the group cards that allow players to define their factions. This post will discuss the crisis cards, which drive the game.

If you are interested, Brian Train has made Caudillo available in .pdf format. Brian has made it clear that he never intended Caudillo to be a non-fictional simulation but his game provides a solid framework upon which to build a simulation of current events.

Crisis Resolution

During play, players generate resources based upon their control of groups while facing a random number of new crises. When confronting crises and making resource allocation decisions players must perform a balancing act by expending scarce resources to:

Increase their control over groups.

Decrease the control players have over other groups.

Contribute to resolving crises thereby gaining victory points.

If players decide (by not allocating enough resources) to not resolve a crisis in a turn it will cause "inflation".  During the Inflation Loss Segment, players lose resources and the number of victory points awarded during Scoring Rounds are reduced. If enough crises remain unresolved, hyperinflation sets in (i.e. inflation rates for force, influence and money exceed a certain limit) and the society and economy of fictional Virtualia collapses. All players suffer a major loss.

Crisis Cards

Crises can be economic, social or symbolic and each crisis takes a combination of different resources to resolve.  When viewing the crisis cards the row of boxes gives the number of resources required to resolve (ForceInfluence, Money).

There is an option rule for Chronic Crises. If a chronic crisis is resolved the card returns to the play deck to be seen again by the players.

Below I have posted one of the crisis card sheets and have annotated how many resource points each side in the current "scenario" has allocated to the crisis. Please keep in mind that a turn in game turns is abstract and does not account for a specific period of time.

 For purposes of this scenario, the current turn ends once the Foreign Pressure and Food Supply crises are resolved. Resolution can mean the Maduro Regime is still in power in 2020 or that the continued humanitarian aid stand off results in an external intervention (game over, VPs calculated and a war game, rule set TBD, is set up).

Red = Maduro Regime.
Orange = Maduro Allies (e.g. Cuba, Russia, China)
Blue = National Assembly
Green = U.S.A and Allies



Foreign Pressure:

This is the main issue we see in the news with the U.S. embargo and humanitarian aid standoff.  Each player has devoted resources to address this, the crisis will soon be resolved and the U.S.A. player will gain the most victory points as they have allocated the most resources to this issue (1 influence and 3 economic). 

Inflation:

Only minimal resources devoted to this crisis. One reason I judge it this way is that I believe many factions benefit from inflation.  This has been hurting all players for a long time but, for now, they are happy to let this continue.

Food Supply:

This represents the Maduro regime's attempts to subsidize food and find innovative ways to keep the supply lines open (e.g. Turkish pasta) and the current humanitarian aid standoff. This crisis will also be resolved this turn with the Maduro player gaining most of the victory points (3) while the US and National Assembly get some credit (1 VP).

Public & Private Sectors Unemployment & Corruption: 

Private sector corruption has been squashed for now by the Maduro player though this crisis will return.  The biggest factor is the Maduro regime's monopoly of force (i.e. control of all of the force generating Group Cards). 

Even though the Maduro player is the most powerful in this scenario, they do not have enough resources to solve the Public Sector Unemployment issue, which strikes at the heart of their power base.

Crime:

I'll be a cynic here and have all players decide this crisis benefits their faction.  Three players pay lip service to the issue but allocate most of their resources elsewhere.

On the next page, the border incident reported on this blog yesterday makes it into the scenario.


Saturday, February 2, 2019

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 2 February Update

2 February and Before.

I am mostly following the situation on Twitter while trying to find as much information online as is possible concerning the various "players" in the Venezuelan situation. 

3 February Update: No major violence yesterday or a crackdown on the National Assembly by the Maduro government. Today Maduro visits the Marines and the opposition plans ways to convince the military to let in the humanitarian aid that the United States wants to send. 

Maduro


The past few days have seen Maduro visiting various Army and National Guard units, both as a proclamation of loyalty and morale building exercise. It is a safe bet that the units visited can be counted on as most loyal.  Events may bear that statement out.


There have also been "mobilizations" of regime supporters. 


I found it interesting that Maduro has not only been engaging with the military and National Guard but has also been highlighting visits with religious organizations. A couple of days ago he visited with evangelicals and today we have the following tweet:



Juan Guaidó

The national assembly is calling for large scale demonstrations today and whatever transpires today will inform the next moves of all concerned:

"Our word is law"
"Government of Transition"
"Free Elections"

Goal is a march in every town and city.

Update 1130 local time. The National Assembly is now retweeting photos of protests around Venezuela.

This may be indications of police not wanting to crack down or just orders from above to stand down:


May be that the first General has went over to the National Assembly side.  Big news but the Army and National Guard remain key:

"In an on-camera statement published online Saturday, a man identifying himself as Gen. Esteban Yanez Rodriguez of the Venezuelan air force's high command said he has defected from Maduro's military and declared his support for Guaido.
Venezuela's air force website lists Yanez as the head of air force strategic planning. An accompanying photo appears to show the same man as in the defection video.
The video has been edited, and CNN cannot independently authenticate it. It's not clear when or where it was filmed."


United States

VP: "No time for dialog"
John Bolton.  Humanitarian aide used to increase pressure and possibly provide a reason to escalate.


Simulation

In game terms the Maduro player has attempted to rally various pillars of support.  His "die roll" and the results of this effort remain unknown, not only to the Guaidó and US players but also to himself.  This is where a game referee would be most useful, a "Dungeon Master" if you would.

The Guaidó has declared his intention to demonstrate support via large scale protests and prepares to roll the die. First roll will determine the extent of the protests. Before the Guaidó rolls, the Maduro player has to write down the course of action he is directing his subordinates to take. This can range from letting the protests happen to implementing martial law. 

Example, Maduro elects martial law in response to large scale protests probably by playing an agent provocateur card. Guaidó rolls to determine the support behind the protests but the result is the worst possible.  Not many people come out so not only does he lose this round but Maduro does not have to expend international support points by a violent crackdown.

Twitter

This post is, to put it mildly, very critical of Twitter. Of interest, is the coordinated #WeAreMaduro hashtag campaign and a link to, and an excerpt from The Atlantic magazine on how ISIS used social media, specifically Twitter to further its goals.



Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios (War of Nerves)

At this stage the actual "war" between Maduro's government of the Bolivarian revolution and  the United States along with the opposition government proclaimed by Guaido is one of building pressure.

The United States is applying pressure in order to convince a critical mass of the Venezuelan public and, more importantly, those that wield power in Venezuela, to abandon Maduro while Maduro is busy gauging the loyalty of those who can ensure his government's survival.  This is a war of nerves with the United States having the initiative and Maduro attempting to build cohesion.

What does all this have to do with a war game blog?  Everything, as there is a wealth of simulation opportunities unfolding.  Obviously, the United States believes there is a certain level of opposition to Maduro's regime within reach that once obtained, will see a friendly government installed. This allows the following game concept:


  • Game split between the War of Nerves (propaganda, sanctions, food aid, money, gold and oil and pressure built or diffused by international politics) and intervention / invasion.

  • Possibility of multi-player and semi-RPG in the War of Nerves portion of the game. For example, the Bolivariana players can be split by various power players with different motives. The commanding general of the National Guard has a vested interest in regime survival as his personal survival may be on the line but a key general, with family residing overseas may play a game of changing sides if the opposition allows him to retain his wealth.

  • If the US players can only get a draw or are losing the War of Nerves game they have the option to escalate and intervene. Different scenarios allow for an "International Peacekeeping" deployment to outright invasion and regime change. 

  • Option for three players or three teams with the Bolivarian regime, the US and the Venezuelan opposition. Both the US and opposition are allied but have different victory conditions. 

  • Game can also have an option for a post invasion simulation.  The Maduro player may win the War of Nerves causing the US player to invade and obtain an overwhelming victory. Post invasion, who wins the peace?  
I am following these Twitter accounts:

Republica Bolivariana 


Presidential Press Office


Venezuelan National Guard
https://twitter.com/GNBoficial

Ministry of Defense
https://twitter.com/PrensaFANB

Strategic Operational Command
https://twitter.com/ceofanb

Channel 8
https://twitter.com/VTVcanal8

Republica Bolivariana US Backed 


https://twitter.com/jguaido?lang=en

National Assembly
https://twitter.com/AsambleaVE?lang=en


United States

Note: I'm not adding the Trump twitter account as his account will mostly deal with domestic politics and in this War of Nerves the following members of his administration will take the lead on the Venezuelan situation.

Vice President
https://twitter.com/VP?lang=en

Secretary of State
https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?lang=en

Asst. to the President for National Security Affairs
https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton?lang=en


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