Venezuela: The Cuban Army in Venezuela

The Foresight Method

Via a David Goldman post I followed a link to Foresightcuba's July 2017 article on The Cuban Army in Venezuela.

The "Foresight" section serves as the site's "About" page and begins by discussing the Foresight Method, which is analysis that helps define goals (needs) and the risks and opportunities presented by measuring and comparing demographics, economics, resources and well being.

Forsightcuba believes that:

"Cuba is in a deep crisis, caused by erroneous policies, totally disconnected from rational socio-economic foundations and with an enormous cost for the people of Cuba" and goes to state that their project "tries to raise awareness about the challenges, and contribute information for better decision making".

In short, they are not supporters of the current Cuban government and this outlook influences any articles they have on Venezuela its Boliviarian regime. That being said, I don't detect, so far, an overly propagandist or emotional style and believe a lot of the information gathered is informative.

A map and more details on the next page.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 11 February Update

I found this interesting piece on the Saker's web page.  It is a translation of a Russian journalist's visit to Venezuela. Well worth the read and while the reporter is critical of the USA's efforts to overthrow Maduro's government it is definitely not a defense of Maduro or even his supporters (spoiler: they like free stuff). I was surprised to read about Maduro's general unpopularity, at least compared to Chavez and the account of a visit to a "social store".  It seems food is readily available on the street but expensive while the government subsidizes the social stores.  They are stocked with a limited selection of cheap staples and necessities.

National Assembly

Protests scheduled for tomorrow on the Day of Youth.  I thought this would be holiday celebrating youth and the future of the nation but it celebrates the victory at the 1814 Battle of La Victoria and :

"......the courage of the young university students and seminarians from Caracas who, although not men of arms, did not hesitate to seize them and offer up their lives in defense of the cause of independence."

I'm sure the Maduro government is planning their own demonstrations of support on this day.

Maduro Government

Notice that Vladimir Padrino, the Minister of Defense has been featuring more prominently in the government's social media.

Post taken from yesterday but shows what was probably in the Top 10 of team building exercises for the militia. 

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro/status/1094759132631105536

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios (War of Nerves)

At this stage the actual "war" between Maduro's government of the Bolivarian revolution and  the United States along with the opposition government proclaimed by Guaido is one of building pressure.

The United States is applying pressure in order to convince a critical mass of the Venezuelan public and, more importantly, those that wield power in Venezuela, to abandon Maduro while Maduro is busy gauging the loyalty of those who can ensure his government's survival.  This is a war of nerves with the United States having the initiative and Maduro attempting to build cohesion.

What does all this have to do with a war game blog?  Everything, as there is a wealth of simulation opportunities unfolding.  Obviously, the United States believes there is a certain level of opposition to Maduro's regime within reach that once obtained, will see a friendly government installed. This allows the following game concept:

• Game split between the War of Nerves (propaganda, sanctions, food aid, money, gold and oil and pressure built or diffused by international politics) and intervention / invasion.

• Possibility of multi-player and semi-RPG in the War of Nerves portion of the game. For example, the Bolivariana players can be split by various power players with different motives. The commanding general of the National Guard has a vested interest in regime survival as his personal survival may be on the line but a key general, with family residing overseas may play a game of changing sides if the opposition allows him to retain his wealth.

• If the US players can only get a draw or are losing the War of Nerves game they have the option to escalate and intervene. Different scenarios allow for an "International Peacekeeping" deployment to outright invasion and regime change. 

• Option for three players or three teams with the Bolivarian regime, the US and the Venezuelan opposition. Both the US and opposition are allied but have different victory conditions. 

• Game can also have an option for a post invasion simulation.  The Maduro player may win the War of Nerves causing the US player to invade and obtain an overwhelming victory. Post invasion, who wins the peace?  

I am following these Twitter accounts:

Republica Bolivariana 

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro (Spanish)

https://twitter.com/maduro_en  (English)

Presidential Press Office

https://twitter.com/PresidencialVen

Venezuelan National Guard
https://twitter.com/GNBoficial

Ministry of Defense
https://twitter.com/PrensaFANB

Strategic Operational Command
https://twitter.com/ceofanb

Channel 8
https://twitter.com/VTVcanal8

Republica Bolivariana US Backed 

https://twitter.com/jguaido?lang=en

National Assembly
https://twitter.com/AsambleaVE?lang=en

United States

Note: I'm not adding the Trump twitter account as his account will mostly deal with domestic politics and in this War of Nerves the following members of his administration will take the lead on the Venezuelan situation.

Vice President
https://twitter.com/VP?lang=en

Secretary of State
https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?lang=en

Asst. to the President for National Security Affairs
https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton?lang=en