Venezuela: Guerra De Nervios 1 March Link Aggregation

Isolated Venezuela

The Saker gives 1 point to Maduro and the "Anglo-Zionist Empire" zero points in the recent humanitarian aid offensive. 

The Saker has an interesting back story and I enjoy his writing but his recent posts on Venezuela show more emotion and are a little less analytical than usual. Despite awarding the recent round to Maduro the Saker expects more trouble ahead.


The prolific David Goldman calls the Guerra de Nervios a "Bloody War of Attrition". Goldman states that the United States does not have any good choice but favors a U.S. policy of constant subversion and mayhem. Just like the Saker, a reader may not agree with his positions but his articles are always worth a read. In his article Goldman devotes a few paragraphs on explaining that Latin American revolutions are usually "prolonged, bloody wars of attrition" (e.g. Columbia).  Also, there is a link to a ForesightCuba.com article on the Cuban Army in Venezuela.  Translating that post and seeing if I can find additional information online will be the subject of my next Venezuela piece.

The Saker links to Nat South's post analyzing sea and air traffic in the Caribbean during the recent humanitarian aid push. Via Nat South I discovered the Twitter account of Steffan Watkins, worth following, not just for the situation in Venezuela but for anyone interested in analysis based upon open source reporting and sighting of military assets, worldwide.

Venezuela: Brian Train's Caudillo Part II

In Part I I described the game's general course of play and the group cards that allow players to define their factions. This post will discuss the crisis cards, which drive the game.

If you are interested, Brian Train has made Caudillo available in .pdf format. Brian has made it clear that he never intended Caudillo to be a non-fictional simulation but his game provides a solid framework upon which to build a simulation of current events.

Crisis Resolution

During play, players generate resources based upon their control of groups while facing a random number of new crises. When confronting crises and making resource allocation decisions players must perform a balancing act by expending scarce resources to:

Increase their control over groups.

Decrease the control players have over other groups.

Contribute to resolving crises thereby gaining victory points.

If players decide (by not allocating enough resources) to not resolve a crisis in a turn it will cause "inflation".  During the Inflation Loss Segment, players lose resources and the number of victory points awarded during Scoring Rounds are reduced. If enough crises remain unresolved, hyperinflation sets in (i.e. inflation rates for force, influence and money exceed a certain limit) and the society and economy of fictional Virtualia collapses. All players suffer a major loss.

Crisis Cards

Crises can be economic, social or symbolic and each crisis takes a combination of different resources to resolve.  When viewing the crisis cards the row of boxes gives the number of resources required to resolve (Force, Influence, Money).

There is an option rule for Chronic Crises. If a chronic crisis is resolved the card returns to the play deck to be seen again by the players.

Below I have posted one of the crisis card sheets and have annotated how many resource points each side in the current "scenario" has allocated to the crisis. Please keep in mind that a turn in game turns is abstract and does not account for a specific period of time.

 For purposes of this scenario, the current turn ends once the Foreign Pressure and Food Supply crises are resolved. Resolution can mean the Maduro Regime is still in power in 2020 or that the continued humanitarian aid stand off results in an external intervention (game over, VPs calculated and a war game, rule set TBD, is set up).

Red = Maduro Regime.
Orange = Maduro Allies (e.g. Cuba, Russia, China)
Blue = National Assembly
Green = U.S.A and Allies

Foreign Pressure:

This is the main issue we see in the news with the U.S. embargo and humanitarian aid standoff.  Each player has devoted resources to address this, the crisis will soon be resolved and the U.S.A. player will gain the most victory points as they have allocated the most resources to this issue (1 influence and 3 economic). 

Inflation:

Only minimal resources devoted to this crisis. One reason I judge it this way is that I believe many factions benefit from inflation.  This has been hurting all players for a long time but, for now, they are happy to let this continue.

Food Supply:

This represents the Maduro regime's attempts to subsidize food and find innovative ways to keep the supply lines open (e.g. Turkish pasta) and the current humanitarian aid standoff. This crisis will also be resolved this turn with the Maduro player gaining most of the victory points (3) while the US and National Assembly get some credit (1 VP).

Public & Private Sectors Unemployment & Corruption: 

Private sector corruption has been squashed for now by the Maduro player though this crisis will return.  The biggest factor is the Maduro regime's monopoly of force (i.e. control of all of the force generating Group Cards). 

Even though the Maduro player is the most powerful in this scenario, they do not have enough resources to solve the Public Sector Unemployment issue, which strikes at the heart of their power base.

Crime:

I'll be a cynic here and have all players decide this crisis benefits their faction.  Three players pay lip service to the issue but allocate most of their resources elsewhere.

On the next page, the border incident reported on this blog yesterday makes it into the scenario.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 22 February Update

Things are definitely heating up.

National Assembly

This report discusses a convoy of trucks that were stopped on the way to the Columbian border by a National Guard checkpoint. The report states that the convoy was eventually allowed to proceed but this is an indication of both sides slowly moving beyond a war of nerves and into forms of action. The real news is that "Hugo Chavez’s longtime spy chief, retired Maj. Gen. Hugo Carvajal, declared his loyalty to Guaido.".

Carvajal's defection can be confirmed here or by the ubiquity of the term "Hugo Carvajal traidor" in Twitter search results.

Maduro Regime

Violence after the government closed the border with Brazil while an indigenous community on the main transport route tried to keep the border open.  Another sign of escalation as the government is committed to control of its borders while the National Assembly is, so far, willing to keep the pressure up.  The fact that it was indigenous villagers that tried to keep the border open is another indication of escalation as different groups and power centers get involved.

A small border incident between Venezuela and Columbia. A couple of platoons of Venezuelans crossed over the Arauca River and set up camp on a plantation and raised the Venezuelan flag.  They ran off the plantation owner and when confronted by Columbian officials stated that due to the river changing course, they were on Venezuelan territory.  After the Columbian President complained to Maduro, the troops departed.  This was probably a local initiative and indicative of troops in a heightened state of agitation. Looking at my map, these troops were probably from the 92nd Caribe Brigade.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 15 February Update

Maduro Regime

During an interview with the Associated Press President Maduro indicated he was willing to talk with the US side, to include Donald Trump but he would not resign.

Venezuela has added to the barriers on the bridge connecting Cucata, Columbia (the first designated entry point for what the US is referring to as humanitarian aid) and Urena, Venezuela. According to the article:

"The National Assembly president has also announced plans for a second collection center in the northwestern Brazilian state of Roraima, which borders Venezuela. A third storage facility is to be established in Curacao, a Dutch island around 40 miles (65km) off the northern coast of Venezuela."

Venezuela's Supreme Court is blocking opposition appointed board members for the state owned oil company from leaving the country.

United States

The focus is on 20 tons of gold that the Maduro regime is trying to export.  Rumors abound, about a Russian airplane that was supposed to have carried the gold away and now "a plane from Dubai" that is waiting at the airport while the gold remains in Venezuelan vaults. US Senators and administration officials are in a full court press, warning that anyone involved with helping the Maduro regime export gold will face repercussions.

In recent days the US has imposed fresh sanctions blocking imports of Venezuelan oil and has granted Guaido control of Venezuelan assets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

I find the following item interesting:

"In interviews and press conferences, Guaido stresses again and again his team’s push to safeguard Venezuela’s few remaining assets so that they can be used to fund the flow of humanitarian aid into the crisis-torn country."

I'm pretty sure the USAID goods are already paid for by the US taxpayer.  Not sure if Guaido is talking about funding supply chains for the aid (which should be, or I hope is) free?