Friday, February 22, 2019

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 22 February Update

Things are definitely heating up.

National Assembly

This report discusses a convoy of trucks that were stopped on the way to the Columbian border by a National Guard checkpoint. The report states that the convoy was eventually allowed to proceed but this is an indication of both sides slowly moving beyond a war of nerves and into forms of action. The real news is that "Hugo Chavez’s longtime spy chief, retired Maj. Gen. Hugo Carvajal, declared his loyalty to Guaido.".

Carvajal's defection can be confirmed here or by the ubiquity of the term "Hugo Carvajal traidor" in Twitter search results.

Maduro Regime

Violence after the government closed the border with Brazil while an indigenous community on the main transport route tried to keep the border open.  Another sign of escalation as the government is committed to control of its borders while the National Assembly is, so far, willing to keep the pressure up.  The fact that it was indigenous villagers that tried to keep the border open is another indication of escalation as different groups and power centers get involved.

A small border incident between Venezuela and Columbia. A couple of platoons of Venezuelans crossed over the Arauca River and set up camp on a plantation and raised the Venezuelan flag.  They ran off the plantation owner and when confronted by Columbian officials stated that due to the river changing course, they were on Venezuelan territory.  After the Columbian President complained to Maduro, the troops departed.  This was probably a local initiative and indicative of troops in a heightened state of agitation. Looking at my map, these troops were probably from the 92nd Caribe Brigade.



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