Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 2 February Update

2 February and Before.

I am mostly following the situation on Twitter while trying to find as much information online as is possible concerning the various "players" in the Venezuelan situation. 

3 February Update: No major violence yesterday or a crackdown on the National Assembly by the Maduro government. Today Maduro visits the Marines and the opposition plans ways to convince the military to let in the humanitarian aid that the United States wants to send. 

Maduro

The past few days have seen Maduro visiting various Army and National Guard units, both as a proclamation of loyalty and morale building exercise. It is a safe bet that the units visited can be counted on as most loyal.  Events may bear that statement out.

There have also been "mobilizations" of regime supporters. 

I found it interesting that Maduro has not only been engaging with the military and National Guard but has also been highlighting visits with religious organizations. A couple of days ago he visited with evangelicals and today we have the following tweet:

Juan Guaidó

The national assembly is calling for large scale demonstrations today and whatever transpires today will inform the next moves of all concerned:

"Our word is law"

"Government of Transition"

"Free Elections"

Goal is a march in every town and city.

Update 1130 local time. The National Assembly is now retweeting photos of protests around Venezuela.

This may be indications of police not wanting to crack down or just orders from above to stand down:

May be that the first General has went over to the National Assembly side.  Big news but the Army and National Guard remain key:

"In an on-camera statement published online Saturday, a man identifying himself as Gen. Esteban Yanez Rodriguez of the Venezuelan air force's high command said he has defected from Maduro's military and declared his support for Guaido.

Venezuela's air force website lists Yanez as the head of air force strategic planning. An accompanying photo appears to show the same man as in the defection video.

The video has been edited, and CNN cannot independently authenticate it. It's not clear when or where it was filmed."

United States

VP: "No time for dialog"

John Bolton.  Humanitarian aide used to increase pressure and possibly provide a reason to escalate.

Simulation

In game terms the Maduro player has attempted to rally various pillars of support.  His "die roll" and the results of this effort remain unknown, not only to the Guaidó and US players but also to himself.  This is where a game referee would be most useful, a "Dungeon Master" if you would.

The Guaidó has declared his intention to demonstrate support via large scale protests and prepares to roll the die. First roll will determine the extent of the protests. Before the Guaidó rolls, the Maduro player has to write down the course of action he is directing his subordinates to take. This can range from letting the protests happen to implementing martial law. 

Example, Maduro elects martial law in response to large scale protests probably by playing an agent provocateur card. Guaidó rolls to determine the support behind the protests but the result is the worst possible.  Not many people come out so not only does he lose this round but Maduro does not have to expend international support points by a violent crackdown.

Twitter

This post is, to put it mildly, very critical of Twitter. Of interest, is the coordinated #WeAreMaduro hashtag campaign and a link to, and an excerpt from The Atlantic magazine on how ISIS used social media, specifically Twitter to further its goals.