Battle of the Bulge: Game Review

After entering some Bulge related search term I came across this game review for Shenandoah Studio's Battle of the Bulge.

Armchair General's verdict is that the game is a fun, fast playing, simulation that is easy to lean but challenging to master but suffers from unrealistic combat results and "at times", simplistic game play.

Overall they state the game is great value for the price and I have to agree.  I have went through the tutorial, played against the computer in the Race to the Meuse scenario and the Battle of the Bulge full game.

My positive ratings:

• Great user interface and menus. 
• Quick to learn.
• Basic game but many strategic truths hold true.
• Nice map.

Negative:

• Sometimes seems like the game is more puzzle solving than a historical simulation. 
• Activation method for units is all or none for all units in one sector. 
• Nice map but one needs to zoom in and study to see the vital bridges.
• AI can be fooled but only have experience against the "Montgomery" AI. 

Game play consists of activating units in a sector. In the screen shot below I have activated the units in the Losheim Gap and they are about to overwhelm the 14th Armored Group. The 106th Infantry Division is located just east and starts almost surrounded by the German player, sharing the Schonberg sector with the 18th and 62nd Volks-Grenadier Divisions. .

An aspect of the game I like is they do give due consideration to terrain effects.  The 106th may be caught by surprise but they are more than a match in defense against the two VG Divisions. I do think that Shenandoah doesn't give the 18th VG Division the respect it deserves but I think they have this right in that an attack against an infantry division defending in the woods will be a costly affair.  Best for the German player to surround the 106th and wait for lack of supply to take effect. I did in the long game and on the 19th, they were easily captured; a historical result.

The game does bring home the fact that this was a lost battle from the beginning.  I actually reached and crossed the Meuse River and won the long game but could only cross with one Panzer Division and the enemy was threatening my flanks. Patton had a point when he said he wished the Germans would go all the way to Paris...

Combat resolution is simple and almost bring the same level of excitement as rolling dice. Here I have three Panzer Divisions attacking American armor in the Bastogne sector.  Note the small tree and house icons just to the left of the American armor icons.  They are hard to spot as they have a grey "bullet" mark.

Each "pip" or the little white boxes in the unit icons gets one "die" to roll during combat.  In this case the Germans are in the process of "rolling" 17 virtual dice. They already scored two hits but those hits were absorbed by the tree (defenders in forest) and the house (defending in the town) but now the Allied armor is starting to take damage with one hit (removal of one of the pips).

The game is just under $10 and is available on Steam.  I'd class it as a great introductory war game, especially for iPad gamers. I heard that it sold very well with that set.

Here is the Shenandoah Studio FB link. They have a web page but I didn't have luck connecting.

This is one post in a series covering military history and gaming aspects of the Battle of the Bulge.
An index to there series is available by following this link.

Venezuela: Brian Train's Caudillo Part II

In Part I I described the game's general course of play and the group cards that allow players to define their factions. This post will discuss the crisis cards, which drive the game.

If you are interested, Brian Train has made Caudillo available in .pdf format. Brian has made it clear that he never intended Caudillo to be a non-fictional simulation but his game provides a solid framework upon which to build a simulation of current events.

Crisis Resolution

During play, players generate resources based upon their control of groups while facing a random number of new crises. When confronting crises and making resource allocation decisions players must perform a balancing act by expending scarce resources to:

Increase their control over groups.

Decrease the control players have over other groups.

Contribute to resolving crises thereby gaining victory points.

If players decide (by not allocating enough resources) to not resolve a crisis in a turn it will cause "inflation".  During the Inflation Loss Segment, players lose resources and the number of victory points awarded during Scoring Rounds are reduced. If enough crises remain unresolved, hyperinflation sets in (i.e. inflation rates for force, influence and money exceed a certain limit) and the society and economy of fictional Virtualia collapses. All players suffer a major loss.

Crisis Cards

Crises can be economic, social or symbolic and each crisis takes a combination of different resources to resolve.  When viewing the crisis cards the row of boxes gives the number of resources required to resolve (Force, Influence, Money).

There is an option rule for Chronic Crises. If a chronic crisis is resolved the card returns to the play deck to be seen again by the players.

Below I have posted one of the crisis card sheets and have annotated how many resource points each side in the current "scenario" has allocated to the crisis. Please keep in mind that a turn in game turns is abstract and does not account for a specific period of time.

 For purposes of this scenario, the current turn ends once the Foreign Pressure and Food Supply crises are resolved. Resolution can mean the Maduro Regime is still in power in 2020 or that the continued humanitarian aid stand off results in an external intervention (game over, VPs calculated and a war game, rule set TBD, is set up).

Red = Maduro Regime.
Orange = Maduro Allies (e.g. Cuba, Russia, China)
Blue = National Assembly
Green = U.S.A and Allies

Foreign Pressure:

This is the main issue we see in the news with the U.S. embargo and humanitarian aid standoff.  Each player has devoted resources to address this, the crisis will soon be resolved and the U.S.A. player will gain the most victory points as they have allocated the most resources to this issue (1 influence and 3 economic). 

Inflation:

Only minimal resources devoted to this crisis. One reason I judge it this way is that I believe many factions benefit from inflation.  This has been hurting all players for a long time but, for now, they are happy to let this continue.

Food Supply:

This represents the Maduro regime's attempts to subsidize food and find innovative ways to keep the supply lines open (e.g. Turkish pasta) and the current humanitarian aid standoff. This crisis will also be resolved this turn with the Maduro player gaining most of the victory points (3) while the US and National Assembly get some credit (1 VP).

Public & Private Sectors Unemployment & Corruption: 

Private sector corruption has been squashed for now by the Maduro player though this crisis will return.  The biggest factor is the Maduro regime's monopoly of force (i.e. control of all of the force generating Group Cards). 

Even though the Maduro player is the most powerful in this scenario, they do not have enough resources to solve the Public Sector Unemployment issue, which strikes at the heart of their power base.

Crime:

I'll be a cynic here and have all players decide this crisis benefits their faction.  Three players pay lip service to the issue but allocate most of their resources elsewhere.

On the next page, the border incident reported on this blog yesterday makes it into the scenario.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 22 February Update

Things are definitely heating up.

National Assembly

This report discusses a convoy of trucks that were stopped on the way to the Columbian border by a National Guard checkpoint. The report states that the convoy was eventually allowed to proceed but this is an indication of both sides slowly moving beyond a war of nerves and into forms of action. The real news is that "Hugo Chavez’s longtime spy chief, retired Maj. Gen. Hugo Carvajal, declared his loyalty to Guaido.".

Carvajal's defection can be confirmed here or by the ubiquity of the term "Hugo Carvajal traidor" in Twitter search results.

Maduro Regime

Violence after the government closed the border with Brazil while an indigenous community on the main transport route tried to keep the border open.  Another sign of escalation as the government is committed to control of its borders while the National Assembly is, so far, willing to keep the pressure up.  The fact that it was indigenous villagers that tried to keep the border open is another indication of escalation as different groups and power centers get involved.

A small border incident between Venezuela and Columbia. A couple of platoons of Venezuelans crossed over the Arauca River and set up camp on a plantation and raised the Venezuelan flag.  They ran off the plantation owner and when confronted by Columbian officials stated that due to the river changing course, they were on Venezuelan territory.  After the Columbian President complained to Maduro, the troops departed.  This was probably a local initiative and indicative of troops in a heightened state of agitation. Looking at my map, these troops were probably from the 92nd Caribe Brigade.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 15 February Update

Maduro Regime

During an interview with the Associated Press President Maduro indicated he was willing to talk with the US side, to include Donald Trump but he would not resign.

Venezuela has added to the barriers on the bridge connecting Cucata, Columbia (the first designated entry point for what the US is referring to as humanitarian aid) and Urena, Venezuela. According to the article:

"The National Assembly president has also announced plans for a second collection center in the northwestern Brazilian state of Roraima, which borders Venezuela. A third storage facility is to be established in Curacao, a Dutch island around 40 miles (65km) off the northern coast of Venezuela."

Venezuela's Supreme Court is blocking opposition appointed board members for the state owned oil company from leaving the country.

United States

The focus is on 20 tons of gold that the Maduro regime is trying to export.  Rumors abound, about a Russian airplane that was supposed to have carried the gold away and now "a plane from Dubai" that is waiting at the airport while the gold remains in Venezuelan vaults. US Senators and administration officials are in a full court press, warning that anyone involved with helping the Maduro regime export gold will face repercussions.

In recent days the US has imposed fresh sanctions blocking imports of Venezuelan oil and has granted Guaido control of Venezuelan assets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

I find the following item interesting:

"In interviews and press conferences, Guaido stresses again and again his team’s push to safeguard Venezuela’s few remaining assets so that they can be used to fund the flow of humanitarian aid into the crisis-torn country."

I'm pretty sure the USAID goods are already paid for by the US taxpayer.  Not sure if Guaido is talking about funding supply chains for the aid (which should be, or I hope is) free?

Venezuela: Brian Train's Caudillo

The ongoing events in Venezuela reminded me of what was probably a matrix game  from long ago. My inquiry concerning this old game, led me to Brian Train's Caudillo.

Brian is a long time game designer whose articles and game topics trend towards civil strife, counterinsurgency and revolution.

Caudillo is a semi-fictional card game designed to simulate power struggles among various factions in post-Chavez Venezuela.  In this game, the composition of starting factions are random by nature as in the set up phase each player picks seven Group Cards.

Group Cards have different attributes such as business, criminal, government, media, military social and political. A player can start molding his or her faction's identity during the set up phase as the player has to discard three of the seven cards dealt.

Partial or full control of a group gives a player resources each turn. During the game a player can gradually change the nature of his faction by allocating more resources to group cards in play to gain full or partial control or withdraw support from a group (removing ID marker) and allocating that faction's efforts elsewhere.

On the next page I'll show some Group Cards along with my take on the control of these groups in today's Venezuela.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 11 February Update

I found this interesting piece on the Saker's web page.  It is a translation of a Russian journalist's visit to Venezuela. Well worth the read and while the reporter is critical of the USA's efforts to overthrow Maduro's government it is definitely not a defense of Maduro or even his supporters (spoiler: they like free stuff). I was surprised to read about Maduro's general unpopularity, at least compared to Chavez and the account of a visit to a "social store".  It seems food is readily available on the street but expensive while the government subsidizes the social stores.  They are stocked with a limited selection of cheap staples and necessities.

National Assembly

Protests scheduled for tomorrow on the Day of Youth.  I thought this would be holiday celebrating youth and the future of the nation but it celebrates the victory at the 1814 Battle of La Victoria and :

"......the courage of the young university students and seminarians from Caracas who, although not men of arms, did not hesitate to seize them and offer up their lives in defense of the cause of independence."

I'm sure the Maduro government is planning their own demonstrations of support on this day.

Maduro Government

Notice that Vladimir Padrino, the Minister of Defense has been featuring more prominently in the government's social media.

Post taken from yesterday but shows what was probably in the Top 10 of team building exercises for the militia. 

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro/status/1094759132631105536

Battle of the Bulge: Fighting in Bleialf

This post is a supplement to Part II of the Bulge Series and compliments the one on the fight for Krewinkle and Afst.  The supplements are necessary as the scenario being used as the vehicle to study this battle either starts after the fighting has ended (Krewinkle and Afst) or has the front line further east at game start (Bleialf).

The game map from Part II is copied below to remind the reader on the location of the villages.

With Krewinkel and Afst taken in the north, followed by the loss of Auw and Roth, and a successful assault on Bleialf, the encirclement of the 422nd and 423rd infantry regiments begins.

Matrix Games (game format, not the company): Part I

Game designer Brian Train was good enough to send me an e-mail containing references and ideas for further research on matrix games. 

Update: Here's my first post on Brian's Caudillo.

With his permission, I'm copying his e-mail below as I wanted to share the links and info:

Brian's e-mail follows:

"I don't remember this exact game, but I am aware there were probably quite a few made just like it that were used for high school or college classrooms.

In  university I remember a very entertaining week when my fourth-year class played several turns of the Inter-Nation Simulation, originally designed in the early 1960s by Harold Guetzkow.

The INS came in a basic version with made-up countries, but it could easily be adapted for any real-world situation you wanted. In our case it was an Asian crisis, IIRC.

More on Guetzkow here, I think you should have a look at Rex Brynen's blog generally as he does a lot of this kind of thing for his work as a political science professor at McGill University.

Some of the INS material is in the Internet Archive.

Here is part of a book with references to similar games:

Another big name in this field of early simulation is Clark Abt.

He designed a lot of simulation exercises in the 60s, from city planning to global war, and wrote a book called Serious Games that listed a number of such things.

You can see some of it on Google Books.

I'm sorry I don't have an exact answer for you, I hope you'll find it.

But I must concur with RockyMountainNavy's note that a matrix game is what you need to do for this kind of exercise you are planning. 

It's perfect for this kind of application. 

These things are not hard to arrange or play if you don't have to convince the players first of all that games are a way to explore problems... this holds their professional acceptance back, still!

But I think you don't have that problem.

There is a lot of free information, guidance and material on matrix games and how to play them.

Start here, at Rex Brynen's blog:

And this guide is gold:

I hope you will look up matrix games and use that format.

Your players will not be struggling with rules and discrete mechanics as they would with an old team simulation game you would have to adopt, still less with the rules of my Caudillo game (which is not a difficult game, and is free, but still needs a bit of work to prepare a physical copy).

Thanks,

Brian

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 6 February Update

Juan Guaidó / National Assembly

Strategy for the past few days is to advertise how many countries recognize Juan Guaidó as president. This may reinforce the message coming from the Maduro camp of underdogs trying to defend national sovereignty against the power wielded by the US.

Not sure who the ex Chavez ministers are mentioned below but may be a sign that current supporters of the Maduro regime may be seeking a way out.

"The President @jguaido, held an important meeting with former Ministers of the Ex President, Hugo Chávez.

In the meeting there were several established approaches, the President was recognized and agreed on the need to solve the problems of all Venezuelans."

I'm mildly skeptical about the word "recognized" and may only mean that his opinions were recognized and all the meeting accomplished (publically) was an agreement to keep talking.

Maduro

The main bridge on the border between Venezuela and Columbia has been blocked. This is by Cucuta, Columbia which was the first area aid was advertised to be sent on the 2 February update.

On 2 February I was thinking the aid would be for Venezuelan refugees in Columbia but we also have to remember that the #2 next action put out by Juan Guaidó on 2 February was to "...mobilize to convince the FAN to permit the entry of humanitarian aid.

A gas tank and shipping containers obstructing passage to Venezeula are seen on the Tienditas International Bridge in an aerial photograph taken over Cucuta, Colombia, on Feb. 6, 2019. Photographer: Ivan Valencia/Bloomberg

Note: I'm trying to write this series from a neutral point of view but I cringe at some of the headlines in the U.S. press stating that Venezuela is blocking the bridge in "an attempt to stop aid". Looking at the picture above it's a fair bet that the aid is in a stop mode. 

Recruitment push for the militia and I've noticed a lot of support from Bolivia.

Bolivariana Militia "Where the people are able, the Homeland gains".

#EnlistforVenezuela

If you are between 18 and 30 years of age, enlist in the FANB, from January 14 to February 24 at the nearest military unit. Enlist!

Battle of the Bulge: Fighting in Krewinkle

Introduction

This post is a supplement to Part II of my Bulge series and highlights the fighting for Krewinkle and Afst, a rare American success on the morning of 16 December but not simulated in the scenario.

Situation Maps

This screen shot from an earlier version of the scenario.  Manderfeld is west and in the game we are playing the Germans start off map to the west.

The map below is an update from this post showing German positions at the end of Turn 1, adding place names for Afst and Krewinkel.  The Americans are long gone and Tigers roll through.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 3 February Update

3 February 

This tweet by a deputy of the National Assembly gives the first indication of how the humanitarian aide will be used in this struggle. 

"Thanks to the support of President Iván Duque; Venezuelan private companies in Colombia; and the Government of the USA: we announce that this weekend begins the first of three shipments of humanitarian aid to Venezuela to the collection center of Cúcuta".

Run an DuckDuckGo search "Venezuelan refugees Cucuta Columbia" and you'll find news accounts from 2017 reporting on refugee flows in this border city.

I was wondering if the US was going to conduct a provocative "reverse Cuban blockade" and instead of quarantining Venezuela, send aid shipments directly to Venezuela ports and dare the Maduro government to confiscate it or block it.

Earlier today Juan Guaido posted on his government's short term strategy:

"Attention to the Next Actions"

1. Create a national and international coalition for humanitarian aide, with three distribution centers.
2. We will mobilize to convince the FAN to permit the entry of humanitarian aid.
3. We will ask Europe to protect our activities. 

Minor detail but Guaido referred to the armed forces with the acronym FAN - Fuerzas Armas Nacionales and not by the current FANB - Fuerzas Armadas Bolivarianas Nacionales.

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This update bought to you by the Battle of the Bulge series of blog posts.  Expect new Bulge posts highlighting the action on the morning of 16 December in the 18th VG Division's sector. 

Venezuela: Index

Updated as the situation develops.  Can find the link to this index on the blog's sidebar. 

Index

Interview with Brian Train: Situation in Venezuela March, 2019 and design of counterinsurgency games.

Introduction.  The War of Nerves and Simulation Idea

The Cuban Army in Venezuela. Summary with map of Foresitecuba.com post.

Map: Location of Venezuelan Army Brigades

Related Simulations:

Brian Train's Caudillo.              Group Cards.
Brian Train's Caudillo Part II.  Crisis Cards.

The War of Nerves:

2 February 2019 and prior update.
3 February 2019 update.  Next steps listed by Juan Guaidó.
6 February 2019 update.  Bridge blocked to aid.  Enlistment poster for the militia.
11 February 2019 update. Russian reporter in Venezuela. Day of Youth.
15 February 2019 update. Maduro in talks with US reps.  Venezuelan gold and paying for aid?
22 February 2019 update. The humanitarian aid standoff stats to get violent. A defection.
01 March 2019 link aggregation.  The Saker, Goldman and open source tracking of military assets.
09 March 2019. Update. Power outages and transition from War of Nerves to an escalation or implosion.
30 April 2019: Juan Guaido Makes a Move. Crack in military support to Maduro or a small coup attempt?

Useful Links:

ForesightCuba.com.  "The Island in Numbers".  Spanish language, blog about Cuba but there are Venezuelan related posts.

Steffan Watkins. "I research. I write. I debunk #misinfo|#disinfo re: ships, planes, & cables using #OSINT. Jane's Contributor. IT Security by day."

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios 2 February Update

2 February and Before.

I am mostly following the situation on Twitter while trying to find as much information online as is possible concerning the various "players" in the Venezuelan situation. 

3 February Update: No major violence yesterday or a crackdown on the National Assembly by the Maduro government. Today Maduro visits the Marines and the opposition plans ways to convince the military to let in the humanitarian aid that the United States wants to send. 

Maduro

The past few days have seen Maduro visiting various Army and National Guard units, both as a proclamation of loyalty and morale building exercise. It is a safe bet that the units visited can be counted on as most loyal.  Events may bear that statement out.

There have also been "mobilizations" of regime supporters. 

I found it interesting that Maduro has not only been engaging with the military and National Guard but has also been highlighting visits with religious organizations. A couple of days ago he visited with evangelicals and today we have the following tweet:

Juan Guaidó

The national assembly is calling for large scale demonstrations today and whatever transpires today will inform the next moves of all concerned:

"Our word is law"

"Government of Transition"

"Free Elections"

Goal is a march in every town and city.

Update 1130 local time. The National Assembly is now retweeting photos of protests around Venezuela.

This may be indications of police not wanting to crack down or just orders from above to stand down:

May be that the first General has went over to the National Assembly side.  Big news but the Army and National Guard remain key:

"In an on-camera statement published online Saturday, a man identifying himself as Gen. Esteban Yanez Rodriguez of the Venezuelan air force's high command said he has defected from Maduro's military and declared his support for Guaido.

Venezuela's air force website lists Yanez as the head of air force strategic planning. An accompanying photo appears to show the same man as in the defection video.

The video has been edited, and CNN cannot independently authenticate it. It's not clear when or where it was filmed."

United States

VP: "No time for dialog"

John Bolton.  Humanitarian aide used to increase pressure and possibly provide a reason to escalate.

Simulation

In game terms the Maduro player has attempted to rally various pillars of support.  His "die roll" and the results of this effort remain unknown, not only to the Guaidó and US players but also to himself.  This is where a game referee would be most useful, a "Dungeon Master" if you would.

The Guaidó has declared his intention to demonstrate support via large scale protests and prepares to roll the die. First roll will determine the extent of the protests. Before the Guaidó rolls, the Maduro player has to write down the course of action he is directing his subordinates to take. This can range from letting the protests happen to implementing martial law. 

Example, Maduro elects martial law in response to large scale protests probably by playing an agent provocateur card. Guaidó rolls to determine the support behind the protests but the result is the worst possible.  Not many people come out so not only does he lose this round but Maduro does not have to expend international support points by a violent crackdown.

Twitter

This post is, to put it mildly, very critical of Twitter. Of interest, is the coordinated #WeAreMaduro hashtag campaign and a link to, and an excerpt from The Atlantic magazine on how ISIS used social media, specifically Twitter to further its goals.

Venezuela: Guerra de Nervios (War of Nerves)

At this stage the actual "war" between Maduro's government of the Bolivarian revolution and  the United States along with the opposition government proclaimed by Guaido is one of building pressure.

The United States is applying pressure in order to convince a critical mass of the Venezuelan public and, more importantly, those that wield power in Venezuela, to abandon Maduro while Maduro is busy gauging the loyalty of those who can ensure his government's survival.  This is a war of nerves with the United States having the initiative and Maduro attempting to build cohesion.

What does all this have to do with a war game blog?  Everything, as there is a wealth of simulation opportunities unfolding.  Obviously, the United States believes there is a certain level of opposition to Maduro's regime within reach that once obtained, will see a friendly government installed. This allows the following game concept:

• Game split between the War of Nerves (propaganda, sanctions, food aid, money, gold and oil and pressure built or diffused by international politics) and intervention / invasion.

• Possibility of multi-player and semi-RPG in the War of Nerves portion of the game. For example, the Bolivariana players can be split by various power players with different motives. The commanding general of the National Guard has a vested interest in regime survival as his personal survival may be on the line but a key general, with family residing overseas may play a game of changing sides if the opposition allows him to retain his wealth.

• If the US players can only get a draw or are losing the War of Nerves game they have the option to escalate and intervene. Different scenarios allow for an "International Peacekeeping" deployment to outright invasion and regime change. 

• Option for three players or three teams with the Bolivarian regime, the US and the Venezuelan opposition. Both the US and opposition are allied but have different victory conditions. 

• Game can also have an option for a post invasion simulation.  The Maduro player may win the War of Nerves causing the US player to invade and obtain an overwhelming victory. Post invasion, who wins the peace?  

I am following these Twitter accounts:

Republica Bolivariana 

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro (Spanish)

https://twitter.com/maduro_en  (English)

Presidential Press Office

https://twitter.com/PresidencialVen

Venezuelan National Guard
https://twitter.com/GNBoficial

Ministry of Defense
https://twitter.com/PrensaFANB

Strategic Operational Command
https://twitter.com/ceofanb

Channel 8
https://twitter.com/VTVcanal8

Republica Bolivariana US Backed 

https://twitter.com/jguaido?lang=en

National Assembly
https://twitter.com/AsambleaVE?lang=en

United States

Note: I'm not adding the Trump twitter account as his account will mostly deal with domestic politics and in this War of Nerves the following members of his administration will take the lead on the Venezuelan situation.

Vice President
https://twitter.com/VP?lang=en

Secretary of State
https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?lang=en

Asst. to the President for National Security Affairs
https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton?lang=en